Making Growth Predictions With Our A&R Prediction Tools

What does an emerging Atlanta rapper and a British TV series soundtrack have to do with each other? Let our A&R Prediction tool explain..... @chartmetric #chartmetric #newmusic #discovery #peakyblinders #sxsw #datascience #spotify

  • Highlights
    • What does an emerging Atlanta rapper and a British TV series soundtrack have to do with each other? Let our A&R Prediction tool explain.
  • Mission   
    • Good morning, it’s Jason here at Chartmetric with your 3-minute Data Dump where we upload charts, artists, and playlists into your brain so you can stay up on the latest in the music data world.
    • The SXSW 2020 schedule was just announced yesterday, and Chartmetric is officially hosting two panels: one on Trigger Cities in the Creating & Monetizing Music track and another on Music Data for Engineers & Data Scientists for the Future of Music track. We’ll see you there.
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  • Date
    • This is your Data Dump for Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2019.
  • Making Growth Predictions With Our New A&R Tools
    • On October 9th, one of Chartmetric’s Data Scientists, Josh Hayes, wrote on our blog about the new A&R Prediction capabilities we now have live on the app, and now it’s time to dig into it!
    • We currently have a menu of algorithms that create shortlists of talent that we expect to grow in the next week.
    • We trained a model based on thousands of success-patterns taken from 1.7 million artists over the past 3 years, including album releases, monthly listeners, followers, and Spotify Popularity Index.
    • One of the algorithms predicts who will reach a Spotify Popularity Index (or SPI) of 35 in the next week. If you’re not familiar with SPI, essentially Spotify internally ranks the popularity of all artists on their platform daily, and puts them on a 100-point scale according to their own metrics, which we also track.
      • Coming in #1 yesterday was Atlanta rapper Benjamin Ken who is currently at 23 SPI and grew from 7.5K followers in mid-July to 11.8K followers now.
        • The biggest spike for Ken seems to be his monthly listeners, which was in the 300s only last Wednesday, and spiked up to 12.5K as of Monday.
        • The interesting part is Ken was not added to any new Spotify playlists since August 22nd, and hasn’t released any new music on the platform since his CHOSEN EP in July this looks like a case in which the stimulus of increased Spotify traction has nothing to do with Spotify, it only acting as a repository for increased attention from another source, which for now, requires more digging.
    • Another algorithm we have in the A&R Prediction tool looks at who will break a Spotify Popularity Index of 30 in the next week, which is digging deeper into the level of complexity and confidence on whether they’ll actually hit that benchmark...but hey as long as it’s good music, who cares?
    • Yesterday’s winner was London rock outfit Eyes on Film at 25 SPI and a rather flat follower growth going from the 200s in 2017 to only the 500s this week.
      • Despite the low follower growth, Eyes on Film went from just under 8K monthly listeners at the end of July to breaking 21K this week, growing over 50% in the past month alone.
      • What’s going on here? Yet another TV sync success this case, the award-winning, BBC-produced, and Netflix-acquired series Peaky Blinders, starring Cillian Murphy.
      • The Eyes on Film track “Waking Up Dead” was released back in 2013, but it is also included in two Peaky Blinder-oriented playlists with 288K and 108K followers each.
      • With the fifth season of the series releasing on BBC One in August, coinciding with Eyes on Film’s also spiking up guessed it, August...we now have our method behind the madness.
    • There’s more for us to explore together on the A&R Prediction tool later, but for now, we hope you check it out for yourself!
  • That’s it for your Daily Data Dump for Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2019. This is Jason from Chartmetric.
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